中国经济最后支柱的倒塌

本文由倍可亲网友[ goodoctor ] 于 2009-1-20 05:34 上贴
原文网址： http://club.backchina.com/main/viewthread.php?tid=740180
The Last Pillar Of The Chinese Economy Falls
原作者: Douglas A. McIntyre
译者: caoti
简介

全球性的经济危机已是不争的事实。那么在全球化的背景下，中国是否能独善其身, 或者说能尽快上岸呢？在很多国内媒体大喊信心的时候，不是所有人都很乐观的。

中国大踏步成为头号经济强国的方式相对简单。不断扩大的全球需求将会驱动这台出口机器。其不断壮大的中产阶级，将疯狂的消费产品，无论是中国国产的，还是海外进口的。

道理太简单。甚至智慧出众的经济学家和新闻记者都在谈论以及撰文有关“中国奇迹”。2007年中国GDP达到3.2万亿美元，增长率11%。同年，美国是14万亿多，但是其增长率是3%。中国超越美国只是时间问题了。

中国长期以来依赖巨大的后备农村劳动力。在中国内地，人口从农村向大型工业城市转移，许多中部城市人口现在已达数百万。工厂密集于这些城市。当需求上升，这些地区的劳动力需求也随之而上升。中国创造了属于自己的中产阶级，他们正在以前所未有的速度消费产品。

中央政府相信全球经济衰退导致的出口疲软，可以通过新兴的中产阶级化解，他们的消费能保证GDP继续增长。

该计划已如同一块破手表般分崩离析。据华尔街日报，“中国12月份出口比一年前下降2.8%，为1111.6亿美元，而同月进口下降21.3%，为721.亿美元。”

一年前无法想象的事情现在发生了。中国已经进入衰退而且可能陷得比美国还深。目前尚不清楚，政府能否构建一个创造1000万就业的计划。如果出口持续快速下跌的话，政府将面临的更为严峻的任务。中国没有一个能像美国一样的，能占到其GDP相当大比重的服务业。

过去十年梦幻般的发展，似乎让人感觉中国已经成为了一股独立的力量，好像已经有相当数量人的消费能力达到了前所未有的程度。在过去的两个季度中，很明显，情况恰恰相反。中国经济可能是地球上最具依赖性的。

如果今年美国，欧盟，日本的GDP缩小5%，那么中国缩水的速度会更快。中国制造和出口面临巨大的下挫。尤为重要的是，大量劳动力将会离开新兴工业城市，返回农村，在那里至少他们至少可以糊口。娟娟细流已经汇聚成滔天洪水。那些回到农村的人将不再是净消费者。

随着中产阶级的昙花一现，中国失去了继续”奇迹“的经济核心。它又成了一个有麻烦的大国。

原文:
January 13, 2009
The Last Pillar Of The Chinese Economy Falls

Bejiqcavb2e9ycazw6i8pcauk6iqhca6pxdThe way that China was going to roll forward to become the No.1 economy in the world was relatively simple. An expanding global need for cheap goods would drive a massive export machine. An expanding middle class would become rabid consumers of items made both overseas and within China.

The system was fool-proof. Even remarkably intelligent economists and journalists talked and wrote about "the Chinese Miracle." In 2007, the nation's GDP was $3.2 trillion, growing at 11%. US GDP was well over $14 trillion that year, but its growth rate was 3%. It was only a matter of time before the lines crossed.

China has been able to draw upon a huge reserve of rural labor. People have moved from the country to a number of large industrial cities in the interior of the country, many of which now have populations in the millions. Factory complexes were built in these same areas. As long as demand for output moved up, the labor forces in these regions grew. China created its own middle class which made and consumed goods at record rates.

The central government has believed that as the demand for exports softened recently due to the global recession, the country's new middle class would continue to help GDP grow through consumption.

The plan has fallen apart like a cheap watch. According to The Wall Street Journal, "China's exports in December fell 2.8% from a year earlier to $111.16 billion, while imports in the month fell 21.3% to $72.18 billion."

What was unimaginable a year ago has now happened. China has entered a recession and it may end up being deeper than the one in the US. It is not clear that the government can mount and manage a plan to create about 10 million new jobs. This will be an even more difficult task if exports continue to fall sharply. China does not have a service industry which is anywhere close to being as large a part of the GDP as it is in the US.

The illusion developed over the last decade was that China had become an independent power with a population which could make and consume goods at levels which have never been seen before. During the last two quarters, it has become clear that the the opposite is true. China's economy may be the most dependent large economy on earth.

If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster. It will be faced with a sharp drop in what it makes and exports. More importantly, large numbers of Chinese are leaving the huge new industrial cities and going back to rural regions where they can at least find work growing their own food. What is more than a trickle now could become a flood. Those who have gone back to non-industrialized sections of the country will not be net consumers at all.

With a short-lived and dwindling middle class, China no longer has the economic core to continue the "miracle." China has just become another big country in trouble.

Douglas A. McIntyre